South Australians headed to the polls on Saturday, 21 March 2026, to elect the 56th Parliament of South Australia, in what became one of the most consequential and historic state elections in decades. Drawing on 30 years in politics, our colleagues in Australia reflect on the significance of the results.
The clear headline from the South Australia (SA) election is that One Nation is now a real political force. Labor has romped back into Government, and the Liberal Party Opposition is little more than a stone in its shoe.
So why aren’t there more One Nation Lower House seats? Historically, directing preferences to One Nation has not been considered an option for parties of government. In fact, the Liberals’ greater success in the House of Assembly is partly dependent on Labor and other preferences taking it ahead of its new rival.
Can the resistance to dealmaking persist? With a fifth of the population voting for One Nation, refusal to engage will eventually appear arrogant rather than principled. If the Liberal Party is to increase its presence in State and Federal Parliaments, it will need to show serious willingness to enter into dialogue with the Party representing such a large proportion of its disaffected voters.
With an established preference deal, One Nation would be more of a threat in Labor seats, where in SA, it regularly polled second, but failed to find a suitable share of preferences.
All of this suggests a permanent reshaping of the centre-right of Australian politics, which may be distasteful to many traditional Liberal voters, but cannot be hoped away.
Whether the SA result is a high watermark or just the start of a warning to major parties depends on a number of factors. One of the most important is the sense that there is any prospect of change. In SA, disconnection from the Liberals may have been made easy by the assumption that the Malinauskas Government would be easily re-elected in any case. So the risk of a non-traditional vote was massively discounted.
This may well cause fear amongst the Coalition in Canberra, where the Albanese Government’s significant majority makes a third term easily the most plausible scenario. But it should give more pause to Labor in Victoria, where the Government faces a far tougher test in November.
For those focused on policy and public investment rather than elections though, what are the lessons? The most obvious is that One Nation and other independents are at least going to take up a bigger share of upper houses across the country, more airtime and increasing political bandwidth – with corresponding influence on legislation, regulation and Parliamentary committees.
That means they need to increasingly considered in the advocacy mix, both before and after elections. But it also means they will need to mature as a source of policy. Broadly speaking, One Nation’s promises in SA were uncosted. Which was fine when they represented such a small part of the electorate, but will not stand when they make a claim to be the largest non-Labor party. This will be quickly recognised, and we expect more nuanced engagement with industry and other stakeholders as the One Nation story evolves.
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Tracey Cain, CEO
H/Advisors Australia